🎯 IPO Allotment Probability Calculator
Compute exact statistical allotment odds across single & multiple family PAN Demat accounts under SEBI lottery mechanics.
⚙️ Bidding Parameters
📈 Mathematical Output
📚 SEBI Retail IPO Allotment Framework & Mathematical Probability Model
An analytical guide on the computerized retail allotment lottery mechanism, multi-account statistical advantages, and cut-off bidding rules.
1. The Mechanics of SEBI’s Retail Allotment Lottery
Under the regulatory framework governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the Retail Individual Investor (RII) category in book-built public issues operates on an equitable distribution model rather than a proportionate allocation system. When an IPO receives valid retail bids exceeding 1.0x oversubscription, the designated registrar executes an automated, randomized electronic lottery overseen by stock exchange supervisors.
In an oversubscribed scenario, maximum retail applicants are allotted exactly one minimum bidding lot regardless of whether they applied for 1 lot or maximum allowable lots up to the ₹2,00,000 retail threshold. Bidding for maximum lots from a single PAN does not increase allocation odds; rather, it ties up idle bank capital under the ASBA lien without any mathematical advantage.
2. Mathematical Formulation of Allotment Odds
The baseline probability of receiving an allotment for a single Demat account when the retail category is subscribed $S$ times is expressed as:
When an investor submits independent single-lot bids across $N$ unique PAN Demat accounts, the cumulative probability of securing at least one lot is governed by the binomial probability of complementary events:
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Grey Market Premium (GMP) Notice: Figures regarding Grey Market Premium (GMP), Kostak rates, and subject-to-sauda deals reflect unofficial, unregulated over-the-counter market sentiment. These figures do not guarantee exchange listing prices or actual trading outcomes. Always evaluate official Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP / RHP) documents filed with BSE/NSE and consult a certified financial advisor prior to executing financial bidding decisions.